Month: January 2015

New Year, Usual Shit

This past Friday I had a request from one of our clients for interview availability for two candidates.  Dutifully, I got availability from both for Monday and Tuesday, and of course never heard back from the client.  We all left for the weekend, I sent emails to both candidates saying that since we didn’t hear back to consider Monday off, and we’d aim to schedule something for Tuesday when Monday came around.  And of course the client emails my account manager at 10:30 PM on Friday wanting to set up interviews for early Monday.

To be frank, it’s this level of incompetence that is destroying the US landscape.  The assumption that people don’t have lives and are on call 24/7 has got to fucking stop.  Back in the sixties and seventies if you couldn’t get your job done in 40 hours, or for some reason insisted on working 70 hour weeks, people wondered what the fuck was wrong with you.  You were considered either inefficient, because it shouldn’t take 70 hours to do the job, or you were considered weird as fuck for not having enough of a life such that you could work 70 hours a damn week.  In Germany this is still the norm.  However, here in the US, ever since the silicon valley boom where the 40 hour work week was supplanted by the 70 hour work week thanks to a bunch of borderline Asperger’s types having nothing else they wanted to do but fuck around with circuit boards, that’s now considered ‘the norm’ in the US.

And, of course, this will reopen my employer’s repeated ‘requests’ I put work email on my private phone.  Because, of course, they want you to be available twenty four hours a day, seven days a week, but won’t provide you the tools or infrastructure to make that possible of course.  Oh no, use your own stuff which you pay for to do that, of course.  And since the ATS system we use is a relic from the 90s with no web access, it wouldn’t even really matter if I had access to email because at most I’d have past emails from the candidates, but no access to alternate contact info, unless of course I doubled up and created my own damn database from scratch in Excel to store information – twice – which is already in the work database but not accessible because it’s an antique piece of shit.

In world were people have no boundaries and more and more people are these lifeless fucks with no families or friends to spend time with, so they insist on making work their life instead of letting work support their life, it’s getting harder and harder to be a normal damn person.

The! War! For! Talent!

Lately I’ve been seeing a lot of posts prognosticating that 2015 is going to be The Year where everything turns around. Employees are in the driver’s seat! Salaries are going up! The economy is in real recovery!

All from the same troop of jackasses who thought real estate prices could never go down, and that pre crash we were in a post scarcity world where wealth would just pile up endlessly for everyone.  Well, I say horse shit.

One, prediction can only be made in broad, qualitative terms.  Quantitative predictions are almost always wrong.  Two, trends are great, until they reverse, and then they’re not trends anymore.  So, here’s my prognostication:

There may be a slight uptick in salaries in 2015.  The Fed against all probability has managed to reflate a bit of a bubble, so people might feel richer for it, at least for a while.  However,  some policies and realities continue regardless of the optimism of a few.  For one, monetary policy here and in almost every other country has gone full retard, and the underlying misallocations of capital thanks to near zero, and in reality negative interest loans when you account for devaluation, will eventually have to be exposed and corrected.  What that means is the crash of 2008 was chump change compared to what’s coming.

The end of the petro dollar seems inevitable, and without that the US loses some clout in the world.  China and Russia will get friendlier, and India will go along with them.  And specifically to China, my guess is that’s where the black swan event will occur that will bring on the next depression.  You’ve got them being the latest blip on the skyscraper index, and they are literally building entire cities for no one in that country.  If ever there was a real Austrian Economics style bubble economy happening, it’s in China, and when that one pops it’s going to take a big chunk of the world with it.

And, to top all that off, monetary and trade policy remains moronic in the US, regulations are piling up, and income inequality is being exacerbated to an extreme, with the levels of expatriation of the rich going through the roof.

In the US we are seeing a blip upwards on what is otherwise a very long path downward, and it won’t be long before capital starts flowing out of the US en masse.  I’m with Peter Schiff, eventually this will resolve itself into a currency crisis, and I’m pretty sure most currency crisis lead to military crisis.

So, overall, my guess is it’s not too much longer before World War III gets going in earnest.